chartpatterns.com
Electronic Hotline / Vol.
5, Number 3
CHARTS and ANALYSIS
(Sunday,
May 21, 2000)
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PORK
BELLIES |
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The pork bellies (new this week), after
a retreat from recent highs, has paused and formed a small descending
triangle in a new downtrend. Bearish. Notice the Relative Strength Index
(RSI) has also formed a bearish pattern (small rising wedge). |
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BRIDGE
/ COMMODITY RESEARCH BUREAU (CRB) INDEX |
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The Bridge / CRB Index broke out of a
nice ascending triangle in an uptrend a few weeks ago. And just a couple
of weeks ago, it broke out of a bull pennant. Watch this market. It's
got a lot of potential. But watch it also because it's a great barometer
for what commodity prices are doing in general. (It has long been used
as a general inflationary indicator.) (To learn more about the CRB
Index, just e-mail us at: CRBIndex@chartpatterns.com.)
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NASDAQ
100 |
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The Nasdaq 100, after collapsing
through long term trendline support about a month or so ago, recently
broke out of a bear flag in a downtrend. As we said the other week, a
move through the bottom of the pattern would suggest even lower prices.
Pay attention. The big drop that was seen in late March and early April
should not have come as a surprise. The move to the downside was
foreshadowed in so many ways. Just take a look. Can you see the warning
signs? |
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COFFEE |
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Coffee continues to be one to watch. No
real pattern, but bullish divergence and a strong leading Relative
Strength Index (RSI) suggests a waning bearishness. A move through the
green line on the price chart should spark some bullish ideas. |
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JAPANESE
YEN |
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A head and shoulders reversal pattern
set the yen's dump in motion. A falling wedge took some of the immediate
bearishness off the market. It appears to be headed for a typical return
move to the underside of the broken neckline. This should contain any
upside advance. If the neckline is violated, near term bearishness
should be put on hold and buyers may try to assert themselves. The RSI
looks rather strong. |
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ORANGE JUICE |
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Orange juice looks interesting and still looks to
be forming a base in my opinion. There appears to be a big rectangular
trading range that continues to confine the market (sort of). A move
through the top of the pattern though, should get this thing going,
while a move with impunity through the bottom, should send it even
lower. (Opinions notwithstanding, do what the pattern says.) Again, a
break through the bottom is bearish, while a break through the top is
bullish! |
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CANADIAN DOLLAR |
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The Canadian dollar after breaking through long
term trendline support in mid April, broke out of a bear flag pattern
last week. (More on trendlines
and support and resistance.)
Bearish. (Take a look at the volume readings on the breakouts.) Good
confirmation. Take a look at the weekly chart below. |
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CANADIAN DOLLAR / Nearest
Future Chart (June '00) Weekly |
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This view of the Canadian dollar (weekly nearest
future chart / June '00) shows the potential of a downmove. Big rising
wedge in a previous longer term downtrend. Here you can see a longer
term view of the broken support and the typical return move to the
underside of the broken trendline and the subsequent turn-away. |
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SOYBEANS |
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After a nice bull flag breakout in an uptrend a few
weeks ago, followed by a typical return move to the top of the pattern,
the market broke down at the beginning of the week. Price and strength
divergence are apparent. And the RSI in and of itself looks a bit
concerning. Immediate bullishness seems to have been put off. But don't
forget the big picture. See the weekly chart below. |
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SOYBEANS / Nearest
Future Chart (July '00) Weekly |
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Here's a look at the weekly chart. The 'big
picture' sees an inverted head and shoulders breakout (followed by a
bullish pennant breakout). The size of the pattern suggests the
bullishness isn't yet over. |
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FEEDER CATTLE |
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Feeder cattle appeared ready to move higher a few weeks ago after a bull flag breakout. However, the market quickly failed (the green circle shows the failure point). The other week we mentioned that a move through the hashed red line should send prices moving lower. |
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Look
what they're saying about us on hotrate.com. |
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"Technical analysis is very subjective in nature. This site helps
clarify and reduce missed signals. Extremely well done." |
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"Recognize market movements long before the others; this is your
site." |
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For account opening
information, e-mail Kevin Matras at: |
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The
information contained here was gathered from sources deemed reliable,
however, no claim is made as to its accuracy or content. This does not
contain specific recommendations to buy or sell at particular prices or
times, nor should any of the examples presented be deemed as such. There
is a risk of loss in trading futures and futures options and you should
carefully consider your financial position before making any trades. The
reference to statistical probabilities does not pertain to
profitability, but rather to the direction of the market. The size and
the duration of the markets move, as well as entry and exit prices
ultimately determines success or failure in a trade and is in no way
represented in these statistics. Furthermore, no representation is being
made that any of the examples shown resulted in actual trades or will
result in actual trades. This is not intended to be a complete study of
chart patterns or technical analysis and should not be deemed as such. |
|
Futures and options trading carries significant risk and you can lose
some, all or even more than your investment. |